More Comments From StratFor on Lifting the Drilling Moratoriam

Another source of non-mainstream media brings up discussion points regarding the recent oil drilling announcement from Zero.


A4 Driver

Thursday, April 1, 2010

STRATFOR.COM Diary Archives

Obama's Offshore Drilling Announcement

U.S. PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA ANNOUNCED WEDNESDAY that areas of federal offshore territory in the Atlantic Ocean, eastern Gulf of Mexico and Alaskan Arctic would be available for oil and natural gas drilling. The announcement follows a 2008 decision by Congress to end a two-decade-long moratorium on offshore drilling. While the president opened new areas for drilling, he delayed leasing in the Chukchi and Beaufort areas until 2012, and closed off Alaska’s Bristol Bay and the west coast offshore. Most of the newly opened areas are unexplored — and the rest explored 25 years ago — so with initial environmental studies, leasing, exploration and production all to be done, it may be decades before the energy gets to market.

To justify the move, Obama appealed to energy security, calling attention to American dependence on foreign sources of oil and the security challenges that go with it, including an abiding interest in Middle Eastern regional affairs that has occasioned economic shocks and military conflicts. Yet the recoverable reserves from the territories is not yet known, therefore the direct benefit to energy security cannot be measured. Of course, part of Obama’s goal is to use offshore drilling as leverage to generate greater support among his political rivals for his policies on cutting U.S. carbon emissions and promoting alternative energy development. But it remains to be seen whether these policies will become law — not to mention whether they will achieve the desired outcomes.

From the foregoing it would appear that Obama’s announcement was at best ambivalent, and at worst a dud. Nevertheless STRATFOR sees in the administration’s move the potential for a domestic political shift that could become geopolitically relevant.

“Part of Obama’s goal is to use offshore drilling as leverage to generate greater support among his political rivals for his policies on cutting U.S. carbon emissions and promoting alternative energy development.”

In modern U.S. history, once a president is beleaguered by opponents, his only option — if he is to achieve any objectives — is to appeal to his core constituency. Without a supportive base, no president can retain the allegiance of his own party in Congress, whose members are rarely keen on sacrificing their jobs for the benefit of another politician’s legacy. Moreover, no amount of fair weather fans, middle-of-the-road voters or defectors from the other camp can make up for the gaping loss created by an alienated core. Obama’s predecessors were put on the defensive early in their terms — Bill Clinton after seeing Congress flip in his second year, and George W. Bush after the victory in Iraq faded and a long insurgency erupted — forcing them to abandon grander schemes and contract their ambitions into the scope of what the base demanded.

This pattern suggests that Obama now stands at a critical juncture. The passage of his health care bill counts not only as a key victory for his domestic agenda, but a major boon for his core supporters on the left. The president has achieved the first requirement to solidify his power, winning him room for maneuver in pursuit of other goals. In other words, with his base appeased, Obama has the opportunity to broaden his coalition, to reach out to centrists or right-wingers open to his overtures. The window is small. Campaigning is already underway for the 2010 midterm elections, which have the potential to either catapult or hobble the remainder of Obama’s first term.

Expanding the potential for domestic offshore energy exploitation is exactly the kind of move that, however it ultimately shakes out in relation to domestic oil production and energy security, lends Obama credibility as a president capable of leading by broad consensus. But domestic offshore drilling alone, especially in the limited scope announced Wednesday, will only go so far — and far be it from STRATFOR to blow this development out of proportion, given the wide range of other challenges that still threaten to throw the administration off track. What grabs our attention is any American president that has the chance of expanding support beyond his base. 

Such a president gains a rare advantage when it comes to driving foreign policy — one that none has enjoyed since Ronald Reagan. America is already the leader of the global system, and an administration that does not have to worry much about its standing at home has far more freedom to pursue American interests abroad.